Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy

This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.

Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan.

Contents
Preface
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
Society and a Varying Climate System
A U.S. Dec-Cen Science Strategy
2 CLIMATE ATTRIBUTES THAT INFLUENCE SOCIETY
Precipitation and Water Availability
Temperature
Solar Radiation
Storms
Sea Level
Ecosystems
3 MODES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Climate Patterns in the Atmosphere
Other Patterns of Interest
Co-variability in the Climate System: Coupled Patterns
The Role of Dec-Cen Variability in Global Warming
Fundamental Issues and Questions
4 MECHANISMS AND PREDICTABILITY
The Nature of Climate Prediction
Short-, Medium-, and Long-Range Climate Prediction
Prediction and Mechanisms
The Uses of Climate Prediction
5 CLIMATE-SYSTEM COMPONENTS
Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing
Atmospheric Circulation
Hydrologic Cycle
Ocean Circulation
Cryosphere
Land and Vegetation
6 CROSSCUTTING ISSUES
Climate Information
Coupled-Model Development and Infrastructure
Detection, Attribution, and Simulation
Linkage Across Time Scales
7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
REFERENCES
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS